The world needs fewer computers than you think
世界所需的電腦，比你想得少
本文節錄自Taipei Times By Nick Carr
A quaint prediction made more than 60 years ago -- that the world would only need a handful of computers -- is starting to be taken seriously.
全球所需的電腦屈指可數：60年前的一個古怪預測，開始被認真嚴肅的看待。
In the early 1940s, IBM president Thomas Watson reputedly said: "I think there is a world market for about five computers." Watson's legendary misjudgment did not prove fatal to his company. When businesses began buying mainframes in large numbers in the early 1950s, he quickly steered IBM into the new business. The proliferation of computers has, of course, accelerated ever since.
據說在1940年代初期，IBM總裁Thomas Watson曾說：我認為全球市場的電腦需求，是五台左右。Watson傳說中的誤判並沒有帶賽公司的經營。1950年代初期，企業開始大量購買大型的計算機器時，他很快的帶領IBM進入這個產業。自此，電腦普及和增加的速度是有史以來的高峰。
But Watson's prediction is suddenly coming back into vogue. In fact, some leading computer scientists believe that his seemingly ludicrous forecast may yet be proven correct. Greg Papadopoulos, the chief technology officer at Sun Microsystems, recently declared on his blog: "The world needs only five computers" (tinyurl.com/yd5hs8). Yahoo's head researcher, Prabhakar Raghavan, seconds Papadopoulos's view.
但是，Watson的預測突然又風行了起來！事實上，許多頂尖的科學家Watson乍看荒唐的預測可能即將被證明是正確的。昇陽電腦的重要科技主管Greg Papadopoulos，最近在個人的blog中發表了他的看法：＂全世界只須要五台電腦啦！＂Yahoo的研究主管Prabhakar Raghavan也表明贊同他的觀點。
In an interview in Business Week in December, he said: "In a sense, there are only five computers on Earth." Most striking of all, some researchers at IBM believe that five computers may be four too many. In a new paper, they describe how a single IBM supercomputer, which they codename Kittyhawk, may be all we need. "One global-scale shared computer," they say, may be able to run "the entire internet."
他在Business Week12月的一次訪談中說到：就某種意義而言，地球上只有五台電腦咧。更嚇人的是，一些IBM的研究員相信，五台電腦好像多了四台…...。在一篇新發表的論文中，他們解釋了一台名為＂凱蒂鷹＂的IBM超級電腦，如何可以滿足所有人的需求。他們說：一台全球分享的電腦就可以搞定所有網際網路了。
The idea isn't that we'll all end up using one big, central box to run our software and store our data. What these experts are saying is that the very nature of computing is changing. As individual computers are wired together with the fiber-optic cables of the Internet, the boundaries between them blur. They start to act like a single machine, their chips and drives melding into a shared pool. Rather than writing software that runs on just one microprocessor inside one box, programmers can write code that runs simultaneously, or in parallel, on thousands of networked machines.
這個想法並不只是用一台超大高快的大機器跑所有軟體、存所有資料而已。這些專家們是在告訴我們計算的本質正在改變當中。當個人電腦都用寬頻或是adsl的網際網路互相連接時，個人點腦之間的界線已經越來越模糊了。它們開始運作的像是一台機器，它們的晶片、控制者合併成為一個分享池。不只是為單一的電腦撰寫軟體，程式設計者可以寫程式即時的、平行的驅動數以千計的網路上的電腦。
Such giant computing grids, explains Papadopoulos, "will comprise millions of processing, storage and networking elements, globally distributed into critical-mass clusters." His point in calling them "computers," he says, "is that there will be some organization, a corporation or government, that will ultimately control" their construction and operation. Their many pieces will work in harmony, like the components inside your PC. This is not just a futuristic theory.
這樣一個龐大的分散伺服器計算方式驗證了Papadopoulos的話：這將包含數以百萬計的處理程序、儲存元件以及電腦網路，並且全球性的分布在臨界質量群體中。（我的老天，他在說火星話嗎？）他的意思是說，最後所有的電腦的建立以及操作都會被某個組織、政府、或是公司給控制。所有的電腦將會像是在同一台PC裡一樣合諧的運作，不過這只是未來的理論而已。
High-tech companies such as Google, Amazon, IBM and Deutsche Telekom are already building powerful computing grids that can do the work of thousands or even millions of individual servers and PCs. The computer scientist Danny Hillis, who is one of the pioneers of the parallel-processing method that the grids use, has called Google's global network of data centers "the biggest computer in the world."
一些高科技公司像是：Google、Amazon、IBM以及Deutsche Telekom（德國電信）都已經開始建造可以比擬數千甚至百萬台PC或是伺服器的強力計算機器。平行處理程序方法的先鋒，電腦科學家Danny Hillis稱呼Google全球網路資料中心為＂全世界最大的電腦＂。
It could be argued that the current consolidation of computing power is the fulfillment of the computer's destiny. In 1936, the great Cambridge mathematician Alan Turing laid out a theoretical blueprint for what he called a "universal computing machine" -- a blueprint that would take physical form in the electronic digital computer.
近來計算機器的整併，是否就是電腦的宿命尚未有定論。在1936年偉大的劍橋大學數學家Alan Turing，曾展示一個稱為＂世界計算機＂的理論藍圖；這個藍圖可以建立電子數位電腦的實體。
Turing showed that such a machine could be programmed to carry out any computing job. Given the right instructions and enough time, any computer would be able to replicate the functions of any other computer.
So, in theory, it has always been possible to imagine a single giant computer taking over the work of all the millions of little ones in operation today. But until recently the idea has been firmly in the realm of science fiction. There has never been a practical way to build a computing grid that would work fast enough and efficiently enough. Lots of little computers was the only way to go.
Turing證明透過程式設計，可以讓這樣的機器讓完成任何計算的工作。只要給予電腦正確的指示和足夠的時間（這不是廢話嗎？那我也可以阿），任何電腦可以複製其他任何電腦的功能。所以理論上，一台巨大的電腦接管所有其他數以百萬計的小電腦的工作是可以想像的。但是直到最近，這個想法都被視為是科幻小說的範疇。始終都無法建造一個夠快、夠有效率計算機器。因此好多好多各自的小電腦是唯一的方式。
Now, thanks to the explosion in computing power and network bandwidth, the barriers to building a universal computer are falling. Very bright people can talk seriously about a world where there are only five computers -- or even just a single one -- that all of us share. It's not a world that Thomas Watson would recognize, even if it represents the future he accidentally foretold.
現在，多虧了電腦能力以及網路頻寬的爆炸性成長，建造世界電腦的障礙正在下降。頂尖的人們正在認真嚴肅的討論這樣一個世界：所有人分享五台、甚至是一台電腦的世界。這並不是Thomas Watson認識的世界，儘管這代表了他碰巧的預言中的世界。
世界所需的電腦，比你想得少
本文節錄自Taipei Times By Nick Carr
A quaint prediction made more than 60 years ago -- that the world would only need a handful of computers -- is starting to be taken seriously.
全球所需的電腦屈指可數：60年前的一個古怪預測，開始被認真嚴肅的看待。
In the early 1940s, IBM president Thomas Watson reputedly said: "I think there is a world market for about five computers." Watson's legendary misjudgment did not prove fatal to his company. When businesses began buying mainframes in large numbers in the early 1950s, he quickly steered IBM into the new business. The proliferation of computers has, of course, accelerated ever since.
據說在1940年代初期，IBM總裁Thomas Watson曾說：我認為全球市場的電腦需求，是五台左右。Watson傳說中的誤判並沒有帶賽公司的經營。1950年代初期，企業開始大量購買大型的計算機器時，他很快的帶領IBM進入這個產業。自此，電腦普及和增加的速度是有史以來的高峰。
But Watson's prediction is suddenly coming back into vogue. In fact, some leading computer scientists believe that his seemingly ludicrous forecast may yet be proven correct. Greg Papadopoulos, the chief technology officer at Sun Microsystems, recently declared on his blog: "The world needs only five computers" (tinyurl.com/yd5hs8). Yahoo's head researcher, Prabhakar Raghavan, seconds Papadopoulos's view.
但是，Watson的預測突然又風行了起來！事實上，許多頂尖的科學家Watson乍看荒唐的預測可能即將被證明是正確的。昇陽電腦的重要科技主管Greg Papadopoulos，最近在個人的blog中發表了他的看法：＂全世界只須要五台電腦啦！＂Yahoo的研究主管Prabhakar Raghavan也表明贊同他的觀點。
In an interview in Business Week in December, he said: "In a sense, there are only five computers on Earth." Most striking of all, some researchers at IBM believe that five computers may be four too many. In a new paper, they describe how a single IBM supercomputer, which they codename Kittyhawk, may be all we need. "One global-scale shared computer," they say, may be able to run "the entire internet."
他在Business Week12月的一次訪談中說到：就某種意義而言，地球上只有五台電腦咧。更嚇人的是，一些IBM的研究員相信，五台電腦好像多了四台…...。在一篇新發表的論文中，他們解釋了一台名為＂凱蒂鷹＂的IBM超級電腦，如何可以滿足所有人的需求。他們說：一台全球分享的電腦就可以搞定所有網際網路了。
The idea isn't that we'll all end up using one big, central box to run our software and store our data. What these experts are saying is that the very nature of computing is changing. As individual computers are wired together with the fiber-optic cables of the Internet, the boundaries between them blur. They start to act like a single machine, their chips and drives melding into a shared pool. Rather than writing software that runs on just one microprocessor inside one box, programmers can write code that runs simultaneously, or in parallel, on thousands of networked machines.
這個想法並不只是用一台超大高快的大機器跑所有軟體、存所有資料而已。這些專家們是在告訴我們計算的本質正在改變當中。當個人電腦都用寬頻或是adsl的網際網路互相連接時，個人點腦之間的界線已經越來越模糊了。它們開始運作的像是一台機器，它們的晶片、控制者合併成為一個分享池。不只是為單一的電腦撰寫軟體，程式設計者可以寫程式即時的、平行的驅動數以千計的網路上的電腦。
Such giant computing grids, explains Papadopoulos, "will comprise millions of processing, storage and networking elements, globally distributed into critical-mass clusters." His point in calling them "computers," he says, "is that there will be some organization, a corporation or government, that will ultimately control" their construction and operation. Their many pieces will work in harmony, like the components inside your PC. This is not just a futuristic theory.
這樣一個龐大的分散伺服器計算方式驗證了Papadopoulos的話：這將包含數以百萬計的處理程序、儲存元件以及電腦網路，並且全球性的分布在臨界質量群體中。（我的老天，他在說火星話嗎？）他的意思是說，最後所有的電腦的建立以及操作都會被某個組織、政府、或是公司給控制。所有的電腦將會像是在同一台PC裡一樣合諧的運作，不過這只是未來的理論而已。
High-tech companies such as Google, Amazon, IBM and Deutsche Telekom are already building powerful computing grids that can do the work of thousands or even millions of individual servers and PCs. The computer scientist Danny Hillis, who is one of the pioneers of the parallel-processing method that the grids use, has called Google's global network of data centers "the biggest computer in the world."
一些高科技公司像是：Google、Amazon、IBM以及Deutsche Telekom（德國電信）都已經開始建造可以比擬數千甚至百萬台PC或是伺服器的強力計算機器。平行處理程序方法的先鋒，電腦科學家Danny Hillis稱呼Google全球網路資料中心為＂全世界最大的電腦＂。
It could be argued that the current consolidation of computing power is the fulfillment of the computer's destiny. In 1936, the great Cambridge mathematician Alan Turing laid out a theoretical blueprint for what he called a "universal computing machine" -- a blueprint that would take physical form in the electronic digital computer.
近來計算機器的整併，是否就是電腦的宿命尚未有定論。在1936年偉大的劍橋大學數學家Alan Turing，曾展示一個稱為＂世界計算機＂的理論藍圖；這個藍圖可以建立電子數位電腦的實體。
Turing showed that such a machine could be programmed to carry out any computing job. Given the right instructions and enough time, any computer would be able to replicate the functions of any other computer.
So, in theory, it has always been possible to imagine a single giant computer taking over the work of all the millions of little ones in operation today. But until recently the idea has been firmly in the realm of science fiction. There has never been a practical way to build a computing grid that would work fast enough and efficiently enough. Lots of little computers was the only way to go.
Turing證明透過程式設計，可以讓這樣的機器讓完成任何計算的工作。只要給予電腦正確的指示和足夠的時間（這不是廢話嗎？那我也可以阿），任何電腦可以複製其他任何電腦的功能。所以理論上，一台巨大的電腦接管所有其他數以百萬計的小電腦的工作是可以想像的。但是直到最近，這個想法都被視為是科幻小說的範疇。始終都無法建造一個夠快、夠有效率計算機器。因此好多好多各自的小電腦是唯一的方式。
Now, thanks to the explosion in computing power and network bandwidth, the barriers to building a universal computer are falling. Very bright people can talk seriously about a world where there are only five computers -- or even just a single one -- that all of us share. It's not a world that Thomas Watson would recognize, even if it represents the future he accidentally foretold.
現在，多虧了電腦能力以及網路頻寬的爆炸性成長，建造世界電腦的障礙正在下降。頂尖的人們正在認真嚴肅的討論這樣一個世界：所有人分享五台、甚至是一台電腦的世界。這並不是Thomas Watson認識的世界，儘管這代表了他碰巧的預言中的世界。
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